The top 4 positions in the EPL season provide the opportunity for teams to play in the UEFA Champions League for the following season. The battle for the top 4 is usually one of the most interesting games to watch in the EPL.
Among the teams that would be battling for the EPL top 4 positions is the Manchester United team. Manchester United is a team that has been denied European football this season, and they would be looking to play the UEFA Champions League next season. However, it seems Manchester United may not make it again this season.
In this post, you will be reading four reasons why we think that Manchester United would not qualify for the UEFA Champions League for next season. Let’s begin.
Why Manchester United Will Not Make The Top 4 This Season
Here are the top 4 reasons why Manchester United will not make the top 4 for the EPL 2025/2026 season:
1. Unresolved Defensive Issues
One of Manchester United’s struggles in the EPL 2025/2026 season has been their defence. So far, as of December 2025, Manchester United have conceded around 28 goals in 17 games. The number of conceded goals places them among the teams with the worst defensive records in the top half of the table.
To add to that, the number of expected goals against Manchester United this season is something else. According to statistics, the expected goals (xGA) against Manchester United this season is 1.6 goals per game.
This basically means that opponents create chances very easily when they play Manchester United. For instance, matches such as the one against Bournemouth, where they ended the match in a 4-4 draw, emphasize this fact.
If Manchester United continue in this way, it is most likely that they will lose out on playing Champions League football next season.
In recent Premier League seasons, teams that have ended up within the top 5 have conceded fewer than 40 goals in a few seasons.
Well, Manchester United this season is already on course to concede 60 goals. So, this is just one strong evidence that suggests that Manchester United will not make the top 4.
2. Inconsistent Form
The truth is that while Manchester United’s defense has been leaking, the team’s attack has been one of the best this EPL season. If you compare Manchester United’s expected goals per match, you’ll notice that they have the second-highest expected goals (xG) of 2.0 per match played.
Despite this goal-scoring record, Manchester United has found it difficult to put a strong streak of several matches of consistent winning into reality. It is as if they win convincingly against lower table teams than against mid-table or top-table teams in the EPL.
For example, we’ve seen how after a convincing 3-0 victory over Wolves, they drew 2-2 with Crystal Palace despite dominating possession and xG on paper.
So far, in around 17 league games in the EPL, Manchester United have struggled to have a win rate of around 40%. If you compared this with the win rate of the previous top 4 teams in previous seasons, this is a poor rating.
Usually, teams that make the top 4 are those with a 60-70% win rate at this stage of the season. Even Manchester United coach Ruben Amorim has mentioned several times that it seems that his team has struggled to showcase “killer instinct” to win games convincingly in a consistent manner.
If this continues, it is most likely that Manchester United will end up with points ranging between 55-60 points at the end of the season. Now, this point range is low considering that other teams who make the EPL top 4 would have around 70+ points at the end of the season.
3. Yet to Play Strong Rivals
In the current top 4 position in the English Premier League are teams that have been consistent and disciplined in defense and attack. We are referring to teams such as Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester City, and Chelsea. Taking a deep look at these teams, we see teams that have shown resilience.
For instance, Arsenal has built a good defensive system that has conceded fewer than 15 goals so far. Then, Manchester City, who have scored, rely on consistent attackers like Erling Haaland for goals.
Also, Chelsea has shown that they have rejuvenated their team to a team with good defense and attack. In fact, several predictions have favored these teams to finish ahead of Manchester United in the top 4 battle in the EPL 2025/2026 season.
READ THIS: A Look At Top EPL Clubs That Would Lose Key Players To AFCON 2025
4. AFCON Tournament Window
The AFCON tournament period would be a time when Manchester United could really struggle this season. Unlike the top 3 teams in the Premier League this season, Manchester United has the largest number of African players who would be representing their countries at the AFCON this season.
If you look closely, Manchester United would have three players who would be actively involved in their natural teams between December 21 and January 18.
These players are Bryan Mbeumo (Cameroon), Amad Diallo (Ivory Coast), and Noussair Mazraoui (Morocco). In almost all the matches that Manchester United have been in this season, these players have been pivotal to their successes.
So, it would be a struggle for Manchester United to cope without these players are out for the AFCON competition.
If things go south and Manchester United struggles, this could really jeopardize their top 4 chances this season.
The reason for this is due to the fact that December and January are usually bombarded with fixtures, and failure to get maximum points from the matches could result in going down the EPL table.
Conclusion
The battle for the top 4 position at the EPL 2025/2026 season is beginning to take shape. Already, teams that started out struggling are beginning to win games in order to get a chance in the European Champions League next season. Manchester United would be fancying their chance to get into the top 4 so that they can enjoy European football next season. Would Manchester United be able to get into the top 4 by May 2026?
Only time would provide the answer.